The election is headed for the home stretch so what better time to start a little project. I have started examining each swing state and the probable winner for each based on current data, the 2016 election, and overall sentiment. You can find the data here.
I will update the states as we draw closer to "E-Day" but do note that early voting is ongoing in some states and close to kicking off in others. I will revise states currently on the the list and most likely adding more moving forward. We will also start tracking the Electoral College map starting tomorrow.
Also, Thought it would be fun to add a little analysis based on the data to date. Here are my initial positive thoughts for both candidates:
Pro-Trump
1. The president trails in each swing state but the 2016 story was similar and how did that turn out?
2. Biden’s advantage in each state is smaller than Clinton’s 2016 advantage.
3. Every 2016 swing state poll fell short of Trump’s victory margin even the states he was leading resulted in a larger MOV. He lost New Hampshire by a razor thin margin.
4. These are aggregate polling numbers, which means sites such as RCP or Politico average several polls of varying validity. Polls favorable to Trump could be more accurate.
5. Back to note #2, Biden leads all swing state but every lead save Michigan and New Hampshire fall with the margin of error (MOE).
6. Regarding note #5, you could say that means the “MOE” states are essentially deadlocked.
Pro-Biden
The numbers are trending in a blue direction as Trump struggle to build momentum.
The president eroded larger leads in 2016 but his campaign was trending in a very positive direction as #1 alluded.
It may be harder to surprise experts as an incumbent whose support is already baked in the polls.
Biden has raised far more money to the point Democrats are spending large sums in all swings states plus typical red states such as Texas.
Regarding #4, if Texas ends up on this list The Trump campaign is in real trouble.
Overlooking the status of the election of 2020 as it was nearing the end poses many 'what if' questions. During the election period, voters placed their concerns heavily on candidates' plans on their approach to the pandemic and often forgot about other important topics that would affect the nation. However, it is understood why the interest of voters remained primarily in the direction of COVID-19 relief.
During the election, it is easy to overlook the effect one event make have, such as the position Texas had held and the stress it would place on Trump's committee had it swung an unexpected way. Now, almost nearing the end of President Joe Biden's term, one can wonder what position would the United…
I remember when election day was approaching during the 2020 general election, and many of the thoughts I had were along the lines of this post. Looking back at how the election turned out, it is interesting to me on how by looking at the way the swing was shifting in these various states ultimately led to the final results of the election. In particular, I found number 5 under pro-Biden very interesting. One of the discussions we had in class was about whether a candidate could loose both California and Texas and still make a comeback in the election. Looking at the results from the 2020 election, Biden had put much effort into claiming Texas, only for …
The outcome of the election has the potential to impact the lives of millions of Americans, particularly in terms of policy decisions related to healthcare, the economy, and social justice. As Christians, it is important to engage in the political process and to vote according to our values and beliefs. We are called to love our neighbors as ourselves and to seek the well-being of all people, particularly the most vulnerable and marginalized. Therefore, it is important to consider how our political choices can contribute to the flourishing of society as a whole.
At the same time, it is important to remember that our ultimate allegiance is to God, not to any political party or candidate. While we should be…
The 2020 election was the most enticing election to experience. Honestly, I loved watching the swing states go back and forth because I really could not predict what party had the vote, even toward the end. The most insane part of this election was when we thought the votes were in but then had to wait a couple of days for all the counted votes. I will say that I expected Biden to win prior to election day just because of the Democratic influence on media and Trump's impeachment.
I am a bit surprised that the Democratic Party raised more money than the Republicans since Trump is a wealthy businessman and most of his supporters are as well. So how…
The 2020 election was certainly a nail biter and one that brought swing state drama to the forefront like never before. The amount of money Democrats spent on Biden in the swing states was unprecedented. Overall, it was the first presidential election that saw over $1 billion with a B spent by the candidates. In hindsight, it appears that Trump could not compete with the Democrats' $600 million, most which was spent in the swing states. As a human, it pains me to see over $1 Billion spent on people bashing one another when that money could be spent on much bigger and better things in this world.